AGP Executive Report

El Niño Readiness for the Horn: Climate experts warn El Niño is strengthening fast and could bring heatwaves, floods and droughts, with Somalia named among the most exposed countries—raising risks for food, water and health as communities already struggle to absorb shocks. Hunger Spike in Djibouti: An emergency alert highlights a sharp hunger increase, underscoring how climate stress and fragile supply systems can tip households into severe food insecurity across the region. Somalia’s Blue Economy Push: Somalia signed a deal with China granting duty-free access for Somali fishery products, aiming to boost exports, jobs, and investment in processing and cold-chain—key for sustainable fisheries. Somalia–China Fisheries Export Deal: The agreement is framed as part of Somalia’s broader blue economy strategy to strengthen livelihoods for fishing communities. Energy Transition in the Region: Ethiopia’s $110m AfDB-backed Aysha wind project advances, showing how clean power investments near the Somali region could reshape regional energy resilience. Food Security Planning: IPC analysis flags worsening hunger drivers tied to El Niño, food price hikes and trade disruptions—relevant for Somalia’s import-dependent food system.

El Niño Risk for Somalia: Humanitarian groups warn a strengthening El Niño could bring heavier rains, flooding, disease and food insecurity across the Greater Horn, with Somalia already hit by repeated floods and fears of famine in southern areas. Blue Economy & Fisheries: Somalia and China signed a deal granting duty-free access for Somali fishery products, aiming to boost exports and jobs while encouraging fish processing and cold-chain investment. Climate Governance Forum: Somalia launched a development forum focused on governance, economy and resilience, with leaders stressing climate change preparedness and the National Transformation Plan. Regional Livestock Trade: African leaders, including Somalia, backed efforts to remove livestock trade barriers and build investment in animal health, water infrastructure and cross-border market rules under AfCFTA. Aid & Resilience Funding Pressure: UK aid cuts are reported to slash support to some African countries, including Somalia, raising concerns for communities facing conflict and the climate crisis. Maternal Health in Crises: A new report highlights how conflict and disasters disrupt maternal care, including stories from Somalia where women reach clinics after drought-driven displacement. Somalia Politics: The foreign minister says internationally mediated talks are gaining momentum toward a breakthrough on Somalia’s electoral framework. Security Backdrop: A Reuters report notes U.S.-linked aircraft routes tied to Sudan’s RSF, underscoring how conflict supply lines can spread across regions.

El Niño Risk for Somalia: Humanitarian groups warn a strengthening El Niño could bring worse flooding, disease and food insecurity across the Greater Horn, with Somalia already hit by repeated floods and vulnerable to famine risks. Blue Economy Boost: Somalia and China signed a duty-free fisheries export deal aimed at expanding fish and seafood exports, creating jobs, and encouraging cold-chain and processing investment for more sustainable fisheries. Somalia–AU Peacekeeping Funding Shock: Reuters reports the U.S. will block UN logistical/operational support for the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia from 2027, raising concerns over UNSOS continuity and the mission’s financing and sustainment. Somalia Development Forum: Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister opened the third Somalia Development Forum, highlighting governance, economic resilience and climate change preparedness as priorities amid declining assistance. UK Aid Cuts: UK foreign aid reductions could cut support to Somalia by about half by 2029, with critics warning it will deepen hardship on the frontlines of conflict and the climate crisis. Digital Seed Systems: A FAO webinar on digital tools for seed certification and traceability points to better access to climate-resilient seed in Somalia and the region, supporting food security and resilience. Fisheries Governance Training: A related note points to joint training between Somalia and Tanzania officials on sustainable governance of marine resources.

Blue Economy & Fisheries: Somalia and China signed a deal granting Somali fishery products duty-free access to the Chinese market, aiming to boost exports, create jobs, and spur investment in processing and cold-chain infrastructure. Climate Risk & Food Security: Aid groups warn a strengthening El Niño could bring severe flooding, disease, and food insecurity across East Africa, with Somalia named among the highest-risk countries as rains intensify later in 2026. Disaster Preparedness Funding: Kenya is set to receive up to $100m (Sh13bn) from a UN emergency fund to prepare for El Niño impacts, highlighting the wider regional scramble to build resilience. Health & Resilient Systems: Somalia’s health minister joined a regional forum in Mauritania focused on South-South cooperation and sustainable financing to strengthen healthcare and expand access. Governance & Resilience Planning: Somalia launched a development forum on governance, the economy, and resilience, with officials pointing to climate change and declining assistance as key challenges. Regional Security Pressure: Reuters reports the US will block UN logistical/operational support for the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia starting 2027, raising concerns for mission sustainment. Agriculture & Seeds: An FAO webinar highlighted digital tools to strengthen seed systems in Somalia and the region, aiming to improve access to quality, climate-resilient seed.

El Niño Alert for Somalia: The International Rescue Committee warns a rapidly strengthening El Niño could bring severe flooding, disease outbreaks, and food insecurity to Somalia and the wider Horn, with risks rising as communities are already strained by drought, conflict, and reduced aid. Climate-Food Pressure: The World Bank says global food security is fragile even with enough total supplies, as higher fertiliser costs and supply disruptions push prices up, while El Niño threatens crop declines. Somalia Development Forum: Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister opened a two-day Development Forum focused on governance, reconciliation, security, and economic resilience, flagging climate change and falling international assistance as key challenges. Health Financing Push: Somalia’s Health Minister joined a regional health investment forum in Mauritania, stressing stronger financing, regional cooperation, and pharmaceutical manufacturing to build more resilient services. Water, Health, and Flood Risks: Reports note El Niño-linked heavy rains could raise river levels and contaminate water sources, increasing cholera and acute watery diarrhoea risks. Governance and Resilience: Somalia’s political talks are described as gaining momentum toward an electoral framework deal—an issue that could shape how quickly resilience and service plans move.

Climate Risk: A rapidly strengthening El Niño is raising alarms for Somalia and the wider region, with forecasts pointing to heavier rains, flooding, disease risk and food insecurity later in 2026; aid groups warn communities already hit by drought, conflict and shrinking budgets have little room to absorb another shock. Disaster Preparedness: Somalia is watching key updates for “anticipatory action” as June data suggests above-average rainfall in the south and southwest, while officials flag the danger of rivers rising fast and contaminating water sources. Governance & Resilience: Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister Salah Ahmed Jama opened the third Somalia Development Forum in Mogadishu, pushing the National Transformation Plan 2025–2029 and stressing climate change preparedness, economic resilience and inclusive dialogue. Health Financing: Somalia’s health minister joined a regional forum in Mauritania focused on strengthening healthcare financing and regional cooperation, including pharmaceutical manufacturing and more sustainable funding. Water & Climate Adaptation (Somaliland): Somaliland President Irro met the UK ambassador in Hargeisa and discussed expanding cooperation on water, climate adaptation, energy and public services. Wildlife & Marine Conservation: A Kenyan conservation leader, Raabia Hawa, highlighted ongoing poaching and ocean threats at the Our Ocean Conference, underscoring the wider Horn-of-Africa biodiversity stakes.

El Niño Watch: The International Rescue Committee warns a rapidly strengthening El Niño could trigger severe flooding, disease outbreaks and drought across East Africa and parts of Asia, with Somalia named among the highest-risk countries as rains and river flooding could contaminate water and raise cholera and acute watery diarrhoea risks. Climate & Food Security: The World Bank says global food supplies are “broadly adequate” but fragile, with higher fertiliser costs and supply disruptions, plus looming El Niño impacts, threatening harvests and pushing up prices. Somalia Health Financing: Somalia’s health minister attended a regional health investment forum in Mauritania, pushing for stronger regional cooperation, more sustainable healthcare funding, and expanded pharmaceutical manufacturing. Pastoral Livelihoods: The First Africa Pastoral Markets Forum opened in Addis Ababa, calling for investment and market integration to make pastoral livestock systems more resilient and job-creating—an approach that matters for drought- and flood-hit communities in the Horn. Security & State Capacity: A Somalia-focused analysis argues insecurity is not just a military issue, but a political and institutional “dependency dilemma” where foreign support can delay building national security ownership.

Climate Risk: The International Rescue Committee warns El Niño is intensifying fast, with an 81% chance it becomes one of the strongest since 1950, raising fears of severe flooding, disease and food insecurity across Kenya, Uganda and Somalia as rains and river levels could surge and contaminate water sources. Food Security: The World Bank says global food systems are still fragile despite adequate supplies, as fertiliser prices jumped 35% and El Niño-linked weather threats could cut cereal production and push up prices. Health & Resilience: Somalia’s health minister attended a regional forum in Mauritania to discuss stronger healthcare financing, regional cooperation and more resilient systems, including expanding pharmaceutical manufacturing. Somalia Governance: Somalia’s Prime Minister laid a foundation stone to rebuild the Ministry of Commerce and Industry headquarters in Mogadishu, aiming to modernise trade infrastructure and support industrial development. Regional Livelihoods: The First Africa Pastoral Markets Forum opened in Addis Ababa, calling for investment and stronger market systems to boost pastoral livestock trade and resilience. Security Watch: AUSSOM Sector 5 commander inspected Jowhar Airport and ordered repairs to defensive trenches and stronger patrols to protect critical infrastructure from Al-Shabaab threats.

Climate Risk: A “super El Niño” is building over the Pacific, with forecasts pointing to record-warm sea temperatures and a major knock-on effect for weather across the year. Women & Health: CARE warns the coming El Niño will hit women hardest, framing it as a women’s health crisis as severe rainfall is expected to rise in parts of East Africa including Somalia. Security & Infrastructure: AUSSOM Sector 5 commander inspected Jowhar Airport, ordering repairs to defensive trenches and tighter patrols to protect the runway and sensitive facilities from Al-Shabaab threats. Economic Development: Somalia’s Prime Minister laid the foundation stone for rebuilding the Ministry of Commerce and Industry headquarters in Mogadishu, linking the upgrade to trade, investment, and industrial growth. Water/Disaster Lens: A humanitarian report highlights how limited electricity and specialist newborn care in conflict-affected Gedo make safe neonatal treatment hard, pushing reliance on approaches like Kangaroo Mother Care. Regional Livelihoods: The First Africa Pastoral Markets Forum opened in Addis Ababa, calling for stronger pastoral livestock markets to boost resilience and jobs—an angle that matters for Somalia’s climate-stressed communities.

El Niño Watch: Forecasts suggest this year’s “super” El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, with ocean temperatures in the central Pacific running about a degree higher than the 2015 event—raising risks of major weather swings across the year. Women’s Health & Climate Risk: CARE warns the coming El Niño will hit women hardest, especially where severe rainfall and health shocks are expected to intensify in countries including Somalia. Somalia Economic Push: In Mogadishu, the Prime Minister laid a foundation stone for rebuilding the Ministry of Commerce and Industry headquarters, framing it as a step to modernize public infrastructure and support trade and industrial development. Security at Jowhar Airport: AUSSOM Sector 5 commander inspected Jowhar Airport and ordered repairs to defensive trenches, plus stronger patrols to protect personnel and critical infrastructure from Al-Shabaab threats. Regional Power Link: Ethiopia and Kenya signed a new electricity supply deal to boost cross-border power trade and support more reliable, sustainable development across East Africa. Work Permits Shock (Somalia-linked): In the US, TPS work authorizations for people from Somalia and other countries were extended briefly, but expirations are still set for mid-July, adding uncertainty for diaspora livelihoods.

Climate Risk: Forecasts show this year’s “super” El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, with central Pacific sea temperatures running about 3.9°C above average by December—raising the odds of major weather swings across the Horn. Women & Health: CARE warns the coming El Niño will hit women hardest, calling it a women’s health crisis as severe rainfall and drought pressures intensify caregiving burdens and access to care. Early Action for Disasters: IGAD’s ICPAC and Action Against Hunger launched a $4.5m, 24-month plan to strengthen anticipatory action in Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, aiming to move from forecasts to faster, coordinated humanitarian response. Somalia Development: Somalia’s PM laid a foundation stone to rebuild the Ministry of Commerce and Industry headquarters in Mogadishu, framing it as a step toward stronger institutions and industrial growth. Security at Key Infrastructure: AUSSOM’s Sector 5 commander inspected Jowhar Airport, ordering repairs to defensive trenches and tighter patrols to protect operations from Al-Shabaab threats. Regional Power Links: Ethiopia and Kenya signed a new electricity supply deal to boost cross-border trade and support more reliable, “sustainable development” power access.

Climate Risk for Somalia: CARE warns this year’s “super” El Niño will hit women hardest, with Somalia among countries expected to see more severe rainfall—raising health and household burdens. Disaster Preparedness: IGAD’s ICPAC and Action Against Hunger launched IMPAACT, a 24-month anticipatory action project to protect about 243,801 people across Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti by turning climate forecasts into faster, coordinated humanitarian response. Security at Key Infrastructure: AUSSOM Sector 5 commander Brig. Gen. Michel Ndenzako inspected Jowhar Airport, ordering repairs to defensive trenches and stronger patrols to protect operations from Al-Shabaab threats. Workplace Safety in Somalia: Somalia’s National Civil Service Commission and FESTU completed a national training on building respectful, safe and professional workplaces in the public sector, supported by the World Bank’s RCRF program. Global Policy Shock with Local Echoes: In the U.S., DHS extended TPS work permits for Haitians and others including Somalia—temporary relief that still leaves many workers facing looming status uncertainty.

Climate Risk & Early Action: IGAD’s ICPAC and Action Against Hunger launched a 24-month, $4.5m anticipatory action project (IMPAACT) to protect about 243,801 people across Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti by turning climate forecasts into faster, coordinated humanitarian response. Floods & Weather Impacts: A continent-wide account of recent floods highlights how heavy rains have repeatedly overwhelmed cities and infrastructure, with East Africa and West Africa among the hardest hit. Global Heat Record: June 2026 was reported as the second-hottest June on record, reinforcing the pressure on the Horn of Africa to prepare for more extreme weather. Somalia Security Funding Pressure: The AU Commission chair urged member states to strengthen political and financial support for AUSSOM, warning that unpredictable funding could weaken gains against al-Shabaab. Work Authorization Shock (Somalia-linked): In the U.S., TPS work permits were extended briefly for Haitians and for people from Ethiopia, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, South Sudan and Myanmar, but expirations are still set for mid/late July—raising uncertainty for affected families and employers. Media Freedom in Puntland: NUSOJ condemned the arrest and continued detention of female journalist Suways Ga’ayte, calling it a politically motivated attack on independent reporting.

Climate & Disaster Risk: IGAD’s ICPAC and Action Against Hunger launched IMPAACT, a 24-month, $4.5m initiative to protect about 243,801 people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti by strengthening early action systems that turn climate forecasts into timely help before droughts, floods and conflict hit. Regional Security Financing: AU Commission chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged African Union states to boost political and financial support for AUSSOM, warning that unpredictable funding could weaken gains against Al-Shabaab as Somalia takes more responsibility for its security. Somalia Workplace Safety: Somalia’s National Civil Service Commission and FESTU completed a three-day training to build respectful, safe and professional public-sector workplaces, supported by the World Bank’s RCRF programme. Climate Extremes in the Wider Region: A report on Africa’s floods links heavy rains and poor planning to widespread deaths and displacement, with East Africa also seeing flash flooding. Policy & Mobility: IGAD intensified consultations in Mogadishu on Somalia’s ratification of the free movement protocol, aiming for safer, more orderly labour mobility and better protection for migrant workers. Global Climate Signal: June 2026 was reported as the world’s second-hottest June on record, underscoring rising heat stress risks that can worsen drought and food shocks.

Climate resilience in Somalia: Somalia’s federal government launched a $12m climate resilience project for 17 cities (2026–2030), aiming to cut flood risks, restore ecosystems, and improve water management and urban greening—though Puntland’s northeastern administration was left out of the sites. Early action for the Horn: IGAD’s ICPAC and Action Against Hunger rolled out a 24-month, $4.5m initiative (IMPAACT) to protect about 250,000 people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti by linking climate forecasts to faster, coordinated humanitarian response. Floods and planning lessons: A continent-wide look at Africa 2026 floods highlights how climate change plus weak planning is driving repeated, deadly urban and rural flooding. Global warming update: June 2026 was reported as the second-hottest June on record, reinforcing the pressure on disaster-prone regions like the Horn. Water and weather shocks beyond Somalia: Heavy monsoon rains and waterlogging in India’s Delhi-NCR show how extreme rainfall is disrupting cities and services. Security funding squeeze with environmental knock-ons: AU officials warned that unpredictable funding for AUSSOM could threaten gains against Al-Shabaab—an issue that can worsen displacement and strain already fragile local environments.

Climate Resilience in Somalia: Somalia’s federal government launched a $12m climate resilience project for 17 cities (2026–2030), aiming to cut flood risks, restore ecosystems, and improve water management—though Puntland and the Northeastern Administration were left out of the site list. Disaster Preparedness: Action Against Hunger and IGAD’s ICPAC rolled out IMPAACT, a two-year, ECHO-funded initiative to build interoperable multi-hazard anticipatory action systems across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti, targeting 243,801 people. Regional Mobility: IGAD intensified consultations in Mogadishu to speed Somalia’s ratification and implementation of the Free Movement of Persons protocol, including plans for interoperable IDs and a single visa to support lawful labour mobility. Peace Mission Funding: AU officials urged stronger, predictable African financing for AUSSOM, warning that funding gaps could weaken security gains against Al-Shabaab. Global Climate Signal: June 2026 was reported as the world’s second-hottest June on record, underscoring the pressure on Somalia’s already climate-stressed communities.